Bayes 2016

Day 1 – May 17th, 2016

Short course

08.30-09.00: Registration + coffee

09h00-17h30: Bayesian methods for longitudinal data

Instructor: Mike Daniels, University of Texas, US

Day 2 – May 18th, 2016


08h30-9h15: Registration + coffee

09h15-9h30: Welcome + practical details

Invited talk

09h30-10h30: Gregory Campbell, Formerly FDA, US

Bayesian statistics in medical device clinical trials: Great progress and some challenges

10h30-11h00: Coffee break + posters

Contributed talks

11h00-11h20: Leacky Muchene, Hasselt University, Belgium

A Bayesian model for the validation of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as a surrogate endpoint for a clinical endpoint

11h20-11h40: Marco Munda,Arlenda SA, Belgium

Modelling and prediction of recruitment in clinical trials by means of a bi-phasic hierarchical Weibull model

11h40-12h00: Adrian Quintero, KU Leuven, Belgium

Marginal deviance information criterion for latent variable models

12h00-13h30: Lunch

Invited talk

13h30-14h30: Tarek Haddad, MedTronics, US

Incorporation of stochastic engineering models as prior information in Bayesian medical device trials and post-market surveillance

Contributed talks

14h30-14h50: Kathrin Hatz, Bayer Technology Services GmbH, Germany

Using Bayesian-PBPK modelling for assessment of inter-individual variability and subgroup stratification

14h50-15h10: Leonhard Held, University of Zurich, Switzerland

What’s the evidence?  On P-values and Bayes factors

15h10-15h40: Coffee break + posters

15h40-16h00: Joris Menten, Janssen Pharmaceutics, Belgium

A general Bayesian framework for the meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies

16h00-16h20: David Mawdsley, University of Bristol, UK

Model based network meta-analysis: A framework for evidence synthesis of dose-response models in randomised controlled trials

16h20-16h40: Victoria N Nyaga, Hasselt University, Belgium

CopulaDTA: An R package for copula based bivariate beta-binomial models for diagnostic test accuracy studies in a Bayesian framework

16h40-17h00: Igor André Milhorança, KU Leuven, Belgium

Models for multivariate multilevel Likert scales     

18h00-20h00: Beer sightseeing tour Leuven

Day 3 – May 19th , 2016

Invited talk

09h00-10h00: Martin Posch, U Vienna, Austria

An extrapolation framework to specify requirements for drug development in children

10h00-10h30: Coffee break + posters

Contributed talks

10h30-10h50: Clara Domínguez-Islas, Cambridge University, UK

Robust bivariate meta-analytic-predictive priors for including historical information on control rates and treatment effects in paediatric clinical trials

10h50-11h10: Isaac Gravestock, University of Zurich, Switzerland

Practical informative priors based on historical data with Empirical Bayes

11h10-11h30: David Dejardin,F. Hoffmann-La Roche AG, Switzerland

Decision making in basket trials: A hierarchical weights approach

11h30-11h50: Timothy Mutsvari, Arlenda SA, Belgium and Rosalind Walley, UCB Celltech, UK

Addressing potential prior-data conflict when using informative priors in proof-of-concept studies

12h00-13h30: Lunch

Invited talk

13h30-14h30: Invited speaker: Alberto Sorrentino, U Genova, Italy

Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian imaging in neuroscience

14h30-15h00: Coffee break + posters

Invited talk

15h00-16h00:  Kyle Wathen, Johnson and Johnson, US

A Bayesian approach to risk based monitoring

Contributed talks

16h00-16h20: Carl Di Casoli, Bayer, Germany

The case for Bayesian methods in benefit-risk assessment: Overview and future directions

16h20-16h40: Baldur Magnusson, Novartis Pharma AG, Switzerland

Dose escalation design in malaria

16h40-17h00: Anne Benoit, GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Belgium

Taking into account strains heterogeneity in the estimation of vaccine efficacy against seasonal influenza

19h30-23h00: Conference dinner in De Clyne Tafel

Day 4 – May 20th , 2016

Invited talk

09h00-10h00: Robert Noble, GSK, UK

Properties of a Bayesian sequential design to investigate delayed graft function after renal transplantation

10h00-10h30: Coffee break 

 Contributed talks

10h30-10h50: Pierre Lebrun, Arlenda SA, Belgium

Manufacturing process simulation: from bioreactor to shelf-life using Bayesian predictions

10h50-11h10: Martin Otava, Janssen Pharmaceutics, Belgium

Posterior distribution vs tolerance intervals for sampling plan determination in pharmaceutical manufacturing

11h10-11h30: Luwis Diya, Janssen Pharmaceutics, Belgium

Modelling stability of dissolution for a drug product

11h30-11h50: Laurent Natalis, Arlenda SA, Belgium

A Bayesian framework to compute internal release limits (IRL) for products with linear and non-linear degradations

11h50-12h10: Farewell

12h10-14h00: Lunch



  • Bayesian Enrollment Predictions in Clinical Trials Leveraging Regional Data, Aijun Gao, Ventiv Health Clinical and Fanni NatanegaraEli Lilly and Company 
  • Bayesian Designs for Phase I Clinical Trial, Yuh-Ing Chen, Institute of Statistics, National Central University
  • Assessing Drug Safety with Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Using PROC MCMC and JMP®, Valérie Nedbal, SAS Institute GmbH.
  • Bayesian Solution for the Unique Challenges of Continuous Manufacturing of Pharmaceutical Products, Tara Scherder, Arlenda, Inc, Katherine Giacoletti, Arlenda, Inc, Steven Novick, Medimmune, formerly of Arlenda, Inc
  • Characterization of a system used to expose organ-like tissues to aerosols: a Bayesian analysis of a split-split-plot design, S. Kleinhans*, G. Vuillaume*, S. Steiner, S. Majeed, S. Frentzel, F. Martin, J. Hoeng, Philip Morris, Products S.A.
  • Model Based Classification of Monotone Gene Profiles using Bayesian Variable Selection, Rudradev Sengupta Ziv Shkedy Martin Otava, Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat)
  • Methods Comparison for Oncology Phase I Dose finding Studies, Rong Liu, Bayer Healthcare, Wanying Zhao, George Washington University
  • Using Hierarchical Bayesian model for detection of Gene Differential Splicing: The Genome-wide Differential Splicing (GDS) model, Marijke Van Moerbeke1, Adetayo Kasim2 and Ziv Shkedy1 1 Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt 2 Department of Statistics, Durham University, United Kingdom
  • Transferring cut-off values between assays for Alzheimer’s disease CSF-biomarkers., L. García Barrado1*, E. Coart2, and T. Burzykowski1,2 1Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-Biostat) 2International Drug Development Institute (IDDI)
  • Fast MCMC on Graphics Processing Units, David C. Norris