21-23 October 2026

Leiden - The Netherlands

Bayes 2025

DAY 1 – 22 October 2025

TIME
SPEAKER
AFFILIATION
08:30 - 09:00
Registration
09:00 - 12:30
Marco Scutari
Dalle Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence and Consultant, Lugano, CH
Short course "Bayesian and Causal Networks for Clinical and Epidemiological Data: Concepts, Implementation and Interpretation"
npj Digital Medicine
notebooks
Aime
12:30 - 13:30
Lunch
13:30 - 13:40
Welcome and opening
Arnaud Monseur
Cencora-Pharmalex, Belgium on behalf of The Adolphe Quetelet Society
Brad Carlin
Scientific Committee
Chair person: SOFIA VILLAR
13:40 - 14:10
Virgilio Gómez Rubio
University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain
Approximate Bayesian inference for the analysis of population health data
14:10 - 14:30
Suyu Liu
The UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, USA
A Phase I Dose-Finding Design Incorporating Intra-Patient Dose Escalation
14:30 - 14:50
Pantelis Vlachos
Cytel Inc., Switzerland
Evaluating Bayesian and Frequentist Analysis Options for an Oncology Study Design with Non-Proportional Hazards Assumptions
14:50 - 15:10
Brad Carlin
PhaseV Trials, Inc., USA
Optimal Bayesian Adaptive Sequential Trial Design using Stepwise Monte Carlo for Increased Flexibility and Robustness
15:10 - 15:30
Danila Azzolina
Biostatistics and Clinical Trial Methodology Unit, Clinical Research Center, DEMeTra, Department of Translational Medicine, University of Naples Federico II, Italy
SMART-Vent: A Bayesian Adaptive Platform Trial for Evaluating Mechanical Ventilation Strategies Using Patient-Centered Endpoints in Heterogeneous ICU Populations
Chair person: BRUNO BOULANGER
15:30 - 15:45
MY TALK IN 5 MINUTES
Josefina Correa
MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
Bayesian Hierarchical Autoregressive Parametric Estimation with Application to the Analysis of Multilevel Electroencephalogram Signals
Luwis Diya
Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine, Beerse, Belgium
Utilizing Informative Priors in Group Comparisons with Completely Censored Data
Helene H Thygesen
Odense University Hospital, Denmark
Play-the-winner trials: Bayesian effect size estimators and design considerations
15:45 - 16:10
Coffee break
Chair person: ASTRID JULLION
16:10 - 16:40
Harrison Quick
University of Minnesota, USA
The Intersection of Informative Priors and Differential Privacy in Bayesian Spatial Biostatistics
16:40 - 17:00
Emmanuel Lesaffre
KULeuven
The functional uniform prior
An exploration towards its usefulness in non-linear (mixed) models
17:00 - 17:20
Zhi Cao
University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Bayesian bivariate analysis of phase II basket trials enabling borrowing of information

DAY 2 – 23 October 2025

TIME
SPEAKER
AFFILIATION
Chair person: PETER VAN DE VEN
08:45 - 09:15
Juan José Abellan
EMA, NL
Towards (long overdue) regulatory guidance on Bayesian statistics in clinical trials
09:15 - 09:35
J. Kyle Wathen
Cytel Inc., USA
Interim Decision Rules for Early “Go” or Futility: A Comparative Assessment of Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches
09:35 - 09:55
Ruitao Lin
The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, USA
Bayesian design and analysis methods for decentralized clinical trials
09:55 - 10:15
Lorna Wheaton
University of Leicester,UK
A Bayesian model for surrogate endpoint evaluation in mixed biomarker patient populations
10:15 - 10:40
Coffee break
10:40 - 11:10
Andy Grieve
King’s College London, London, UK
Predictive and Pre-Posterior Distributions in the Planning of Clinical Trials
11:10 - 11:40
Nicky Best
GSK London, UK
Beyond the Classical Type I Error: Bayesian Metrics for Bayesian Designs Using Informative Priors
11:40 - 12:15
Panelists: Nicky Best, Andy Grieve, Sofia Villar, Juan Josè Abellan
Moderator: Brad Carlin
Panel session Bayes in Regulatory Science
12:15 - 13:15
Lunch
Chair person: GIANLUCA BAIO
13:15 - 13:45
Nicky Welton
University of Bristol, UK
Multi-level Network Meta-Regression (ML-NMR) for population adjustment in Health Technology Assessment
13:45 - 14:05
Emma K. Mackay
Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto
The Challenge of Precision Medicine in Oncology: Bayesian Solutions for a Changing Landscape in Health Technology Assessment
14:05 - 14:25
Andrea Gabrio
Department of Methodology and Statistics at Maastricht University, NL
A Bayesian modelling framework for health care resource use and costs in trial-based economic evaluations
14:25 - 14:45
Martin Bøg
Novo Nordisk A/S, Søborg, Denmark
A Unified Approach to integrating Dose-Response and Time-Course Estimation in Bayesian network meta-analysis
14:45 - 15:05
Fabio Rigat
AstraZeneca, UK
Design and analysis of clinical trials using Bayesian non-parametrics – application to single arm dose escalation studies
15:05 - 15:30
Coffee break
15:30 - 15:50
Juho Timonen
Generable Inc., USA
Personalized dosing decision using multistate modeling
15:50 - 16:10
Jean-François Michiels
Cencora-Pharmalex, Belgium
Robust Bayesian model for the determination of the confirmatory cut point during the immunogenicity assessment
Chair person: BRUNO BOULANGER
16:10 - 16:30
Laurent Natalis
Cencora-Pharmalex, Belgium
Insight on vaccine stability based on accelerated stability data, Advanced Kinetic Modelling, and Bayesian statistics
16:30 - 16:50
Lian Mae T. Tabien
UP School of Statistics, The Philippines
Bayesian Decision Limits for Correlated Analytes: A Multivariate Regression Approach with Non-Informative and Conjugate Priors

DAY 3 – 24 October 2025

TIME
SPEAKER
AFFILIATION
Chair person: Juan José Abellan
08:30 - 08:50
Georgios Nikolaidis
IQVIA, UK
Incorporating comparative Real-World Evidence in trial-level surrogate endpoint evaluation using adaptive information-sharing methods: a case study in Acute Myeloid Leukemia
08:50 - 09:10
Martin Oliver Sailer
Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co. KG, Germany
Bayesian borrowing for pediatric extrapolation is easy. Not.
09:10 - 09:30
Dina Jankovic
Centre for Health Economics, University of York, USA
Methods for the elicitation of Bayesian informative priors on stage-sojourn time to inform multi-cancer natural history modelling
09:30 - 09:50
Arlene Jiang
Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Optimizing Power in Bayesian Survival Modelling for Rare Diseases
Chair person: BRUNO BOULANGER
09:50 - 10:05
MY TALK IN 5 MINUTES
Giles Partington
Phastar, UK
Bayesian Methods in Registered Clinical Trials: A Systematic Review of Studies Registered on ClinicalTrials.gov
Trevor Wrobleski
London School of Economics, UK
Efficient Bayesian Experimental Design for Benchmark Dose Estimation: Effects of Dose Group Allocation with Overdispersed Toxicological Data
Stef Baas
MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, UK
A burn-in(g) question: How long should an initial equal randomization stage be before Bayesian response-adaptive randomization?
10:05 - 10:30
Coffee break
10:30 - 11:00
Lucinda Billingham
University of Birmingham, UK
Using Bayesian trial designs to change clinical practice in rare diseases
11:00 - 11:30
Aysun Cetinyurek Yavuz
Radboud University Medical Centre, NL
Quantifying Uncertainty in the Face of Rarity: Bayesian Methods in Regulatory Contexts
11:30 - 12:05
Panelists: Lucinda Billingham, Aysun Cetinyurek Yavuz, Peter van de Ven
Moderator: Arnaud Monseur
Panel session Bayes in Rare Disease
12:05 - 12:55
Working light lunch in the conference room
Instats Junior Researchers Prize
Book raffle sponsored by Chapman & Hall/CRC and Springer
Brad Carlin
PhaseV Trials, Inc., USA
Gianluca Baio
University College London, UK
Closing remarks
Arnaud Monseur
Cencora-Pharmalex, Belgium on behalf of The Adolphe Quetelet Society
Brad Carlin
Scientific Committee

SPONSORED BY

Code of Conduct

The Adolphe Quetelet Society is an official region of the International Biometric Society (IBS). As such the society endorses the same objectives and Code of Conduct as its mother organization:

IBS Code of Conduct : The International Biometric Society (IBS) highly values professional and appropriate behavior at all times. This involves scientific and ethical integrity, as well as respectful conduct towards others regardless of gender, gender identity and expression, age, sexual orientation, disability, physical appearances, race, religion (or lack thereof) or beliefs.

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