21-23 October 2026

Leiden - The Netherlands

Bayes 2026

DAY 1 - 21 October 2026

TIME
SPEAKER
AFFILIATION
8:30 - 9:00
Registration
09:00 - 12:30
Lukas Andreas Widmer
Sebastian Weber
Novartis, Germany
Short Course "Applied Modelling in Drug Development with brms"
12:30 - 13:30
Lunch
13:30 - 13:45
Arnaud Monseur
Juan José Abellan
On behalf of The Adolphe Quetelet Society
On behalf of the Scientific Committee
Welcome and opening
Chair Person: Christian Stock
13:45 - 14:15
Kevin Kunzmann
Boehringer-Ingelheim, Germany
From Hunch to Hedge: Applying Bayesian Thinking in Clinical Development Where It Matters Most
14:15 - 14:35
Jose Manuel Lema Martinez
University of Oxford, UK
Frequentist Equivalence and Bayesian Advantages: Evaluating a Fully Bayesian Adaptive Design Against Its Hybrid Counterpart
14:35 - 14:55
Samuel Pawel
EBPI, CRS, University of Zurich, Switzerland
Stabilizing Thompson Sampling with Null Hypothesis Bayesian Response-Adaptive Randomization
14:55 - 15:15
Fabio Rigat
AstraZeneca, UK
Bayesian calibration of clinical trial designs
15:15 - 15:40
Coffee break
Chair Person: Brad Carlin
15:40 - 16:10
Anna Heath
University of Toronto (Dalla Lana) & SickKids, Canada
Bayesian Trial Design in Paediatrics
16:10 - 16:30
Arnaud Monseur
Multiple-bias modelling for Bayesian dynamic borrowing posteriors: a deployable sensitivity-analysis protocol with DAG-structured elicitation
16:30 - 16:50
Erik Hermansson
AstraZeneca, Sweden
Robust Bayesian Sequential Borrowing for Multi-Population Clinical Programmes
Chair Person: Bruno Boulanger
16:50 - 17:20
Philip Young
Boehringer Ingelheim, Germany
Optional Stopping in Bayesian Logistic Regression: Theory, Simulation, and Regulatory Implications
MY TALK IN FIVE MINUTES
Pragnadip Chakrabarty
MuSigmas Consultants, Spain
Bayesian Adaptive Clinical Trial Design Using the Finkelstein-Schoenfeld Win Statistic
Halimu Haliduola
BioNTech SE, Germany
Calibrated Bayesian Noninferiority Inference for Paired Binary Endpoints Under Sparse Discordance
Bohua Chen
University Medical Center Göttingen, Germany
Trial design considerations in the face of overdispersion and time-varying event rates: a meta regression approach with an application in asthma
David SWQ Jones
University of Bath, UK
Bayesian Sample Size Determination for Analysis of Covariance in Randomised Controlled Trials Incorporating Historical Data
17:20 - 17:40
Stacia DeSantis
University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, USA
Covariate-Adjusted Empirical Bayes Power Priors for Robust Historical Borrowing for Pragmatic Pre-Hospital Trauma Late Phase Trials
17:40 - 18:00
Guido Alberti Moreira
Pamela M. Chiroque-Solano
Bavarian-Nordic, Germany
University of Regensburg, Germany
Borrowing information with random weights
18:00 - 18:05
Bruno Boulanger
Closing remarks of the day by the Scientific Committee
18:45
Welcome cocktail at the Lounge bar of the conference centre

DAY 2 - 22 October 2026

TIME
SPEAKER
AFFILIATION
Chair Person: Gianluca Baio
9:00 - 9:30
Marta Blangiardo
Imperial College London, UK
A Bayesian hierarchical framework to evaluate policy effects through quasi-experimental designs in a longitudinal setting
9:30 - 9:50
Yusufhan Balci
Amsterdam UMC, The Netherlands
A Semi-Parametric BART Model for Causal Inference
9:50 - 10:10
Birgit I. Lissenberg-Witte
Universitair Medisch Centrum Utrecht, The Netherlands
Operating characteristics of confirmatory Bayesian de-escalation trials with time-to-event outcomes
10:10 - 10:30
Bruno Boulanger
SANAITIO, Belgium
Causally Informed Dynamic Borrowing for Multi-Site AI Diagnostic Deployment
10:30 - 10:50
Tijn Jacobs
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Heterogeneous treatment effects on survival from randomized and observational data via Bayesian forests
10:50 - 11:20
Coffee break
Chair Person: Arnaud Monseur
11:20 - 11:50
Silvia Calderazzo
German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Germany
A hybrid frequentist-Bayesian view on hypothesis testing in clinical trials borrowing external information
11:50 - 12:10
Brad Carlin
PhaseV Trials, Inc., USA
Bayesian Changepoint and Predictive Responder Methods for Assessing Drug Efficacy in Multiple N-of-1 Trials of Rare Pediatric Diseases
12:10 - 12:30
Luke Ouma
Astellas, UK
An enrichment basket trial design for efficacy
12:30 - 12:50
Mohd Rashid Khan
University of Padova, Italy
Targeting What Matters in Pediatric Trials: Bayesian Basket and Umbrella Trials for Heterogeneous Airway Disease
12:50 - 13:50
Lunch
Chair Person: Astrid Jullion
13:50 - 14:10
Melanie Guhl
Saryga, France
Integrating Preclinical Insights for Adaptive Dose Escalation in Phase I Oncology Trials: A Methodological Framework for Enhanced Efficiency
14:10 - 14:30
Belay Birlie Yimer
Astellas Pharma Europe, Addlestone, UK
A Seamless Two-Stage Phase I/II Trial Design with Backfill and Joint Monitoring for Dose Optimization
14:30 - 14:50
Ayon Mukherjee
Newcastle University, UK
PREDOSE: Pharmacometrically-Refined Early-phase Dose Optimization design for Oncology Study Enhancement
Chair Person: Bruno Boulanger
14:50 - 15:20
Rubens Mita
University of Zurich, Switzerland
Bridging Paradigms in Drug Approval: The Optimal Bayes Procedure for Evidence Synthesis
MY TALK IN FIVE MINUTES
Christina Geyer
Phastar, Germany
Statistical Foundations of AI: From Predictive Models to Credible Evidence in Drug Development
Juan Pablo Diaz Martinez
University of Toronto, Canada
A Bayesian longitudinal multilevel network meta-regression model for repeated outcomes
Adrian Seyboldt
PyMC Labs
Faster HMC for expensive PK/PD models: normalizing flow adaptation in nutpie
Cinzia Carrodano
Senior Independent Researcher
A Bayesian Network Framework for Quantifying Nonlinear Risk Factor Interactions in Type 2 Diabetes Using Real-World Data
15:20 - 15:50
Coffee break
Chair Person: Sofia Villar
15:50 - 16:10
Katharina Hees-Krumm
Paul-Ehrlich-Institut, Germany
Bayesian Methods in European Drug Regulation: Current Use and Regulatory Perspectives
16:10 - 16:30
Burak Kürsad Günhan
Merck Healthcare KGaA, Germany
Dose-Finding Oncology Trials Through the Lens of FDA’s Draft Guidance on Bayesian methods
16:30 - 17:10
John Scott and James Travis
FDA, USA
FDA’s Bayesian Guidance and the Future of Bayes in Regulatory Submissions
17:10 - 17:40
Yuan Ji
University of Chicago, USA
Setting and Reporting the Bayesian Decision Threshold under the FDA 2026 Draft Guidance: A Practical Workflow
17:40 - 18:25
Moderators:
Brad Carlin
Sofia Villar
Panelists:
Juan José Abellan
James Travis
Peter van de Ven
Sebastian Weber
Yuan Ji

PhaseV Trials, Inc., USA
University of Cambridge, UK

EMA, The Netherlands
FDA, USA
UMC Utrecht, The Netherlands
Novartis, Germany
University of Chicago, USA
Panel session Bayes in Regulatory Science
18:25 - 18:30
Brad Carlin
Closing remarks of the day by the Scientific Committee
20:00
Social Dinner at Grand Café Pakhuis

DAY 3 - 23 October 2026

TIME
SPEAKER
AFFILIATION
Chair Person: Justine Rochon
9:00 - 9:30
Andrew Thomson
Regnitio, The Netherlands
40 years of 'Why Isn't Everyone a Bayesian?' - a regulatory perspective
09:30 - 10:00
Alexander Fengler
Carney Institute for Brain Science Brown University, USA
A Hierarchical Bayesian Workflow for Clinical Endpoints in CNS Trials using HSSM
MY TALK IN FIVE MINUTES
Atanu Bhattacharjee
University of Dundee, Scotland, United Kingdom
Bayesian Complex Innovative Designs for Cellular Therapy Development: Dose Optimisation, Patient Selection, and Combination Estimands
Danila Azzolina
University of Padova, Italy
Evaluating Therapeutic Outcomes in Childhood Interstitial Lung Disease Through Bayesian Federated Inference
Mehdi Moradi
Umeå University, Sweden
Bayesian Spatio-temporal Clustering of Disease Incidence Rates Using an Adaptive Geographically Weighted Chinese Restaurant Process
Shreenidhi Soraba
AstraZeneca
Bayesian Lalonde Go/No-Go Framework in Early Oncology: Selecting Neutral Priors and Controlling Risks
10:00 - 10:20
Stef Baas
MRC Biostatistics Unit, UK
Optimal Bayesian enrichment designs for proof-of-concept trials with nested biomarker subgroups
10:20 - 10:40
Laurent Natalis
Cencora, Belgium
Bayesian Stability Modeling of Vaccines Using Advanced Kinetic Models
10:40 - 11:10
Coffee break
Chair Person: Peter van de Ven
11:10 - 11:40
Sofia Dias
University of York / NICE HTA, UK
Borrowing strength across evidence sources in Health Technology Assessment: challenges and opportunities
11:40 - 12:00
Eric Novik
New York University and Generable Inc., USA
AI-assisted evidence synthesis with Bayesian meta-analysis for prospective trial forecasting: the ACACIA-HCM case study
12:00 - 12:20
Emma K. Mackay
IQVIA, Canada
Population-adjusted Indirect Comparisons in Subpopulations with Incomplete Data: A Novel Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling Approach
12:20 - 12:40
František Bartoš
University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Flexible Bayesian Meta-Analysis with RoBMA R Package and JASP
12:40 - 13:00
Gianluca Baio, Bruno Boulanger
on behalf of the Scientific Committee
Instats Junior Researchers Prize
Book raffle sponsored by Chapman & Hall/CRC and Springer
Arnaud Monseur, Sofia Villar
on behalf of the Adolphe Quetelet Society and the Scientific Committee
Closing remarks

CO-SPONSORED BY

Code of Conduct

The Adolphe Quetelet Society is an official region of the International Biometric Society (IBS). As such the society endorses the same objectives and Code of Conduct as its mother organization:

IBS Code of Conduct : The International Biometric Society (IBS) highly values professional and appropriate behavior at all times. This involves scientific and ethical integrity, as well as respectful conduct towards others regardless of gender, gender identity and expression, age, sexual orientation, disability, physical appearances, race, religion (or lack thereof) or beliefs.

Members of the IBS, as well as everyone employed on behalf of IBS or attending events organized by IBS, are expected to endorse this position and they agree to be considerate in speech and actions, to respect others, and to refrain from demeaning, discriminatory, or harassing behavior and speech, at all times.

All the participants of the BAYES2026 conference agree to adhere to the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) Code of Conduct.  

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